Record prices for heavy pigs and recovering profitability
The market for fresh legs and cured hams does well, but profitability does not regain momentum
12, Oct 2022
The prices of pigs for slaughter continued to rise in September. In detail, the heavy type destined for the protected circuit reached 2.017 euro / kg (record level), with a cyclical increase of 4.2% and a trend of 26%. On the other hand, the prices of 7 kg piglets remained stable at 52,700 euros / head, which however maintained a positive variation year on year of 33.7%. As for the 30 kg items, there is a cyclical increase in average monthly prices of 1.5% having reached a value of 3.203 euros / kg in September. Also in this case the trend variation is positive and equal to 30.2%.
Considering now the phases of pig farming, we can see how weaning, in September, was positively affected by the deceleration in the prices of raw materials for feeding; a situation that, despite the firm prices of 7 kg piglets, led the Crefis profitability index at the economic level to increase by 0.5% (+ 12.1% the trend change). The same trend can be seen for the profitability of the pig growth phase which, month on month, shows the Crefis index increasing by 2.1% (+ 2.5% on a trend basis).
The fattening phase is also good. Supported by the decreasing cost trend and the high price level of slaughterhouse garments, the Crefis economic profitability index in September gained 3.2%; the trend figure also remains positive (+ 6.7%) even if it is lower than that recorded in 2020.
To complete the picture of the profitability of the breeding sector, let's analyze the situation in September of the closed cycle which, lasting one year, shows to suffer the most from the weight of costs. The trend profitability index, in fact, is negative and equal to -6.2% despite a recovery in profitability month on month which brought the economic figure to + 2.9%.
Moving on to the swine slaughter phase, in September there were increases in the prices of fresh heavy haunches destined for protected products which reached 5.742 euros / kg with a variation, compared to the previous month, of + 1.9% and with a significantly higher trend figure equal to + 21.4%. The trend of the other cuts of meat was different: the quotation of the Padova cut loin decreased compared to the previous month by 5.5%, bringing the price to 4,660 euros / kg; while the Bologna cut loin saw, again in September, the price increase by 8.4% and reach 4,660 euros / kg. The trend changes remain positive for both products and respectively at 30.5% and 45.2%.
Due to the decrease in the values of some cuts of fresh meat, the profitability of the sector, in the period under consideration, drops at the economic level by 1.4% and at a trend level by 0.6%.
As regards the seasoning sector, in September the prices start to rise again: the heavy seasoned Parma Ham reaches 10,265 euros (+ 2.1% at the economic level) while the generic product increases by 3.1%, marking an equal price. to 7,060 euros / kg. The trend changes are also positive and equal to + 18.3% and + 14.3% respectively.
On the profitability front, the price paid last year for the purchase of fresh thighs weighs heavily on the DOP product of the heavy type; the Crefis profitability index is therefore negative both at the economic level (-1.5%) and trend (-6.4%). The unprotected product, on the other hand, benefits from the increase in the prices of cured ham which has mitigated the weight of costs, so much so that the change in the profitability index at the economic level is positive and equal to 1.6%. The change compared to last year remains negative -12.4%. The profitability differential, while continuing to narrow, remains in favor of the protected product: + 31.4%.
What is Crefis Crefis - Economic Research Center on Sustainable Supply Chains of the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart directed by Professor Gabriele Canali - carries out monitoring and analysis of the pig supply chains, thanks to the support provided by the Agriculture Department of the Lombardy Region, Unioncamere Lombardia, of the Chamber of Commerce of Mantua.
In addition to this activity, the Center actively collaborates on specific projects with various bodies, organizations, associations and districts of the pig production chains, from cereals to cured meats.